At the end of a long and tumultuous season, however, itâs important to recognize all the people who worked themselves close to exhaustion, and all those who treated this exercise in democracy with the respect, reverence and passion it deserves. (Jerry Fallstrom/Orlando Sentinel/Tribune News Service via Getty Images)
At the end of a long and tumultuous season, however, itâs important to recognize all the people who worked themselves close to exhaustion, and all those who treated this exercise in democracy with the respect, reverence and passion it deserves. (Jerry Fallstrom/Orlando Sentinel/Tribune News Service via Getty Images)
(Washington) — Democratic incumbent Mark Kelly has won reelection to the U.S. Senate, according to a late Friday night call by the Associated Press.
The result gets Democrats one seat closer to retaining their Senate majority. The call came after Kelly increased his lead after the release of the latest batch of votes from Maricopa County, Arizona’s largest.
All eyes are now on Nevada, where some 50,000 votes remain to be counted. New batches Friday in Nevada have shrunk Republican Adam Laxalt’s lead over incumbent Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto.
Cortez Masto has a path to a lead. With about 38,000 votes left to count in Clark County, if Cortez Masto can break even in Washoe, where Reno is, Cortez Masto could wind up some 700 votes ahead. But that would be exceptionally close, and there is a lot of vote counting to go. Clark County also could take a few days still to finish counting, because included in that 38,000 total are about 15,000 provisional ballots that need to be counted as well.
If Democrats can pull off both Nevada and Arizona, they would retain control of the Senate without needing to win Georgia, which is officially headed to a Dec. 6 runoff.
Control of the House is still also unknown. Several races in the West were called Friday, and so far, Democrats have mostly swept. The Associated Press, which makes the calls NPR reports, called all three competitive House races in Nevada, for Democrats, for example. Those were seats Republicans had hoped to flip.
At this point, Republicans are still on a path to a slim majority, anywhere from 1 to 7 seats. But there are still millions of votes to count in California, so final numbers likely won’t be known for days at least. Remarkably, Democrats do have a longshot chance at retaining control, but they would need some races where Republicans are currently leading to shift in their favor for that to happen.
(The two independents caucus with the Democrats.)
Democrats are +2 with their flips of the Pennsylvania and Arizona Senate races. That means Democrats need to win just one of Nevada or Georgia, Republicans need to win both.
Arizona: The AP this evening has called the race for Kelly (D), as Kelly’s lead expanded with the latest batch out of Maricopa County.
Alaska: This has been added to the Republican total even though the race is not settled yet, because both leading candidates are Republicans, so this will stay in GOP hands. The question is at this point: which Republican. Incumbent Lisa Murkowski (R) trails Kelly Tshibaka (R) by less than 2 percentage points, or just under 3,000 votes, with 80% in. If neither candidate gets above 50%, this goes to a ranked-choice re-tabulation Nov. 23. Murkowski would likely be favored to win that.
Georgia: Incumbent Raphael Warnock (D) and Republican challenger Herschel Walker (R) are headed to a runoff because neither surpassed 50% on the ballot. Warnock missed the threshold by just under 23,000 votes.
For control of the House, either party needs to reach 218 seats. Republicans need a net of 5 seats to take control. They are on track to do that, BUT likely only with a 1- to 7-seat majority at this point. We likely won’t know the full margin though for days because there are still millions of ballots left to count in California.
NOTE: Please keep in mind that these numbers are fluid and will change as votes continue to roll in. See the latest results here.
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