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Republicans are now just one short of a House majority. Here’s where things stand

AP could call the House some time Wednesday. Nine races are not yet decided with six in California.

  • By Domenico Montanaro/NPR
Representatives-elect during a group photograph outside the U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C., on Tuesday. Congressional Republicans returned to Washington this week adrift and questioning their party's leadership after falling far short of expectations in the midterm elections.

 Al Drago / Bloomberg via Getty Images

Representatives-elect during a group photograph outside the U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C., on Tuesday. Congressional Republicans returned to Washington this week adrift and questioning their party's leadership after falling far short of expectations in the midterm elections.

Votes are still being scrutinized and tallied, as Republicans continue to sit just one House seat shy of a majority, according to calls from the Associated Press. NPR follows AP’s calls and guidance.

AP could call the House some time Wednesday. Nine races are not yet decided with six in California.

As it stands:

  • Republicans are up to 217 to 209 with nine uncalled races.
  • If current leads hold, Republicans would wind up with a 221-214 majority.

That means Republicans would only be able to lose three votes to pass legislation out of the House starting in January. That could be a major headache for Rep. Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif. — or whomever becomes the Republican speaker.

It’s also still possible that that number shrinks or expands slightly, depending on what happens — particularly in California’s 22nd and 27th districts, which Democrats are targeting but are behind, and in the 47th Congressional District, where Democrat Katie Porter’s lead has shrunk to less than 2 points.

Reported vote continues to trickle in slowly in California, which has been commonplace in every recent election. The state takes longer to count its mail votes.

The other three uncalled races are in Colorado, Maine and Alaska. Maine and Alaska have headed to ranked-choice voting tabulations because no one got 50% of the vote. Maine’s 2nd congressional district is expected to be decided tomorrow. Alaska will conduct its retabulation Nov. 23.

A woman drops a ballot into a drop box while casting her vote during Maryland’s primary election, Tuesday, July 19, 2022, in Baltimore. (AP Photo/Julio Cortez, File)

To see just how close races are, check out our graphic that shows the margins in each of the remaining uncalled House races.

Here’s where things stand, by the numbers (as of Tuesday, 10:39 p.m. ET):

  • Current net pickups: R+8. They have flipped 16 competitive seats to Democrats’ 8, according to the AP. (Republicans needed a net gain of 5 pickups to take control this cycle.) Neither party is leading in any other potential pickups.
  • Estimated Republican pick up: 7 to 9 seats. That would give Republicans just a 2- to 4-seat majority.

What’s left

Here’s the list of uncalled races and who leads in them (as of 9:50 p.m. ET):

  1. CA-3 R+5 (53% in)
  2. CA-13 D+761 votes (78 in)
  3. CA-22 R+5 (54 in)
  4. CA-27 R+9 (65 in)
  5. CA-47 D+1 (80 in)
  6. CA-49 D+5 (86 in)
  7. CO-3 R+1,122 votes (99 in)
  8. AK-1 D+20 RCV
  9. ME-2 D+3 RCV

Voters wait in line to make a correction to their ballots for the midterm elections at City Hall in Philadelphia, Monday, Nov. 7, 2022. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke)

Sending a message

Democrats picked up a seat this week in the 3rd Congressional District in Washington state, a district that had been held by a Republican, Jamie Herrera Beutler. But she voted for former President Trump’s impeachment and was ousted by the right in the primary.

There’s an irony in the fact that she was ousted because she voted to impeach Trump and, now, a Democrat has taken over that seat. It’s indicative of the broader message in this election.

  • Of the three dozen toss-up races, Trump backed nine candidates. Only one has won.

Note: Please keep in mind that these numbers are fluid and will change as votes continue to roll in. See the latest results here.


The Senate: Democrats 48, Independents 2, Republicans 49, Uncalled 2

(The two independents caucus with the Democrats.)

With their wins the last two days in Arizona and Nevada, as well as their flip of the Pennsylvania seat, Democrats will retain the Senate.

It’s a remarkable accomplishment for Democrats with a president whose approval rating has been below 50% for more than a year.

But base energy over the issue of abortion and a slew of Trump-backed candidates, who failed in purple states, proved to thwart a potential Republican Senate takeover.

What’s left

Alaska: This has been added to the Republican total even though the race is not settled yet, because both leading candidates are Republicans, so this will stay in GOP hands. The question is at this point: which Republican. Incumbent Lisa Murkowski (R) trails Kelly Tshibaka (R) by less than 2 percentage points, or just under 3,000 votes, with 80% in. If neither candidate gets above 50%, this goes to a ranked-choice re-tabulation Nov. 23. Murkowski would likely be favored to win that.

Georgia: Incumbent Raphael Warnock (D) and Republican challenger Herschel Walker (R) are headed to a runoff because neither surpassed 50% on the ballot. Warnock missed the threshold by just under 23,000 votes. Democrats have the chance to expand their Senate majority with a win there.

What happened since Friday

Nevada:Democratic incumbent Catherine Cortez Masto took the lead after a batch of votes Saturday night were reported in Clark County. Shortly thereafter, she was declared the winner, clinching Senate control for Democrats. There is still vote to count in Nevada, which we will monitor, including 15,000 provisional votes from Clark County, which could also help Cortez Masto extend her lead.

Arizona: Democratic incumbent Mark Kelly’s lead expanded by about 8,000 votes with the Friday night batch of about 80,000 votes out of Maricopa County. The race was called in his favor quickly after that, though vote counting continues there, and there is a closely watched governor’s race, where Democrat Katie Hobbs currently leads Trump-backed Kari Lake, who has made unfounded allegations of fraud in the election.

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