Winning in a purple district
Southwest Washington, once a reliably blue Democratic stronghold composed of middle-class, blue-collar workers, has become more purple in recent years as jobs have dwindled. The state’s 3rd District, which Herrera Beutler represents, encompasses seven counties, as well as parts of an eighth, and largely favored Trump in both 2016 and 2020.
Rural stretches of the district may favor Trump, but its most populous county, Clark County, overlaps with the Portland, Ore., metropolitan area. Its population has grown in recent years and still consistently skews Democratic. President Biden won Clark County by 5 percentage points.
Nierenberg said he’s receiving calls from peers locally, regionally and nationally who want to support Herrera Beutler should she run again in 2022.
“There should be no question that Jaime will be capable of running a very well-financed and well-focused campaign,” said Nierenberg, who gave $11,200 to Herrera Beutler’s reelection campaign last fall.
“If her potential adversaries want to make character and ethics among their issues, I would just say they should be very careful what they wish for,” he said.
![Bruce Castor and Michael van der Veen, lawyers for former President Donald Trump, walk back to their meeting room during a break through the Senate Reception room in the Capitol on the fourth day of the Senate Impeachment trials for former President Donald Trump on Capitol Hill, Friday, Feb 12, 2021 in Washington.](https://www.witf.io/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/AP21043740291085-1920x1280.jpg)
Jabin Botsford / The Washington Post via AP, Pool
Bruce Castor and Michael van der Veen, lawyers for former President Donald Trump, walk back to their meeting room during a break through the Senate Reception room in the Capitol on the fourth day of the Senate Impeachment trials for former President Donald Trump on Capitol Hill, Friday, Feb 12, 2021 in Washington.
“They feel betrayed”
Herrera Beutler electrified her constituents a month ago when she joined nine other Republicans in the House to break ranks and vote to impeach Trump on the charge of inciting the insurrection at the U.S. Capitol.
Outcry erupted among Republican organizations that still supported Trump. Clark County Republican Women said Herrera Beutler would “never receive our votes or support again.”
The day after the impeachment vote, Joel Mattila, chair of the Clark County Republican Party, said his phone had been “blowing up all day long from old party regulars to just your average voters, and there is a lot of disappointment.”
Reached by phone Saturday, Mattila said Herrera Beutler’s latest moves continue to frustrate conservatives.
“She’s obviously doubling down,” he said. “Not only did she vote to impeach, but she became the star witness in the Democrats’ impeachment charade.”
Mattila couldn’t say whether any conservative candidates could emerge to challenge Herrera Beutler, but he said someone certainly will — calling it a “foregone conclusion.”
“They feel betrayed,” he said of local conservatives. “They feel betrayed by what the congresswoman has been doing over the last month and a half.”
![In this image from video, a security video shows Vice President Mike Pence being evacuated as rioters breach the Capitol, as House impeachment manager Del. Stacey Plaskett, D-Virgin Islands, speaks during the second impeachment trial of former President Donald Trump in the Senate at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, Wednesday, Feb. 10, 2021.](https://www.witf.io/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/impeachment-video-5-1920x1081.jpg)
Senate Television / AP Photo
In this image from video, a security video shows Vice President Mike Pence being evacuated as rioters breach the Capitol, as House impeachment manager Del. Stacey Plaskett, D-Virgin Islands, speaks during the second impeachment trial of former President Donald Trump in the Senate at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, Wednesday, Feb. 10, 2021.
Winning over centrists
Herrera Beutler has proved a political heavyweight in the district. First elected in 2010, she has regularly won elections by double digits. Her closest race was in 2018 against Democratic challenger Carolyn Long, whom she beat by 5 points. But Herrera Beutler won the 2020 rematch by 13 points.
Washington state has an open, top-two primary system, meaning two candidates of the same party could theoretically advance to the general election.
Stephan of Washington State University said Herrera Beutler is likely making up for any lost conservative voters by picking up more centrists. He said he expected that the ramifications of her stance on impeachment will likely take shape in the year ahead.
Now that Herrera Beutler has been so vocal in Trump’s second impeachment, said Stephan, her future, as well as that of other Republicans who broke ranks, will likely be inversely influenced by Trump’s control over the Republican Party.
“That could serve her incredibly well in the years ahead if the party decides it needs to go in a new direction from where it’s been the last four years,” he said. “Or this could put her in this very distinct minority that is just left to the margins.”