Did COVID closures cause a public school exodus? Here’s what the numbers say

Over the spring and summer, polls hinted at school enrollment declines that could shake up the educational landscape. Burned out and disgruntled by the spring attempt at virtual learning, large groups of parents said they were ready to yank their kids out of public school for homeschool or private options.

• By Avi Wolfman-Arent/Keystone Crossroads

(Philadelphia) — Over the spring and summer, polls hinted at school enrollment declines that could shake up the educational landscape. Burned out and disgruntled by the spring attempt at virtual learning, large groups of parents said they were ready to yank their kids out of public school for homeschool or private options.

Fast forward to fall and early attendance data from the Philadelphia region indicates that the vast majority of students re-enrolled in traditional public school this fall — with a notable exception being a drop in would-be kindergartners.

WHYY sent requests to dozens of public school leaders in the Philadelphia region for elementary and middle-school enrollment figures and collected responses from 41 districts.

When looking at grades 1-8, the combined enrollment of those 41 districts was 2.9% lower than it was at the same time last year.

Those 41 districts grew by 0.6% the prior school year — indicating that a small group of public-school parents opted out of their local schools this fall.

Among families with children set to enter the school system, there was a more drastic enrollment shift. The districts sampled saw a 10.5% drop in kindergarten enrollment — a trend likely explained by the fact that 5-year-olds aren’t legally required to attend school in Pennsylvania and some parents were wary about this year as a child’s first in a formal K-12 setting.

Taken together, the data shows that a substantial number of parents delayed their child’s entry into public schools. A smaller group pulled students who were already enrolled.

But predictions of a massive homeschooling surge or significant shift to private schools have not materialized. The vast majority of families in the region stuck with their public schools, even though 34 of the 41 districts in this analysis began the year entirely online.

‘One less change’

The enrollment information gathered by WHYY is preliminary.

Every year, school districts and charters take an enrollment snapshot on Oct. 1 and have another two weeks to reconcile that information before sending it to the Pennsylvania Department of Education. The numbers presented here could change slightly over the next two weeks, but represent a basic sketch of enrollment trends around the region, including large districts such as Central Bucks, Downingtown Area, and Upper Darby.

Philadelphia, the state’s largest school district, did not provide exact Oct. 1 enrollment estimates. But Superintendent William Hite said previously the district’s 5,000-student drop was mostly caused by kindergarten declines.

Much can still change.

Keystone Crossroads is a statewide reporting collaborative of WITF, WPSU and WESA, led by WHYY. This story originally appeared at https://whyy.org/programs/keystone-crossroads.