What could a post-Turzai world, whenever it arrives, look like at the Pa. Capitol?

“It doesn’t change the essential nature of the Republican caucus."

• Charles Thompson/PennLive
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  Thompson has covered state government for The Patriot since 1999. Prior to that, he had covered various Cumberland County municipalities and school districts. Thompson lives in Carlisle with his wife, Beth, and their two children.

(Pittsburgh) — No one knows for sure when Pennsylvania’s Speaker of the House Speaker Mike Turzai, who said Thursday he will not seek a new term in office, will actually leave his seat.

Turzai, a 60-year-old Republican from Allegheny County, left open the possibility of leaving before his term expires in November, saying he would assess new career opportunities as they present themselves to him this year. Or, he could stay on through the end of session.

But we do know this: At some point within the next year, there will be a new Speaker, and because Turzai operates so differently than most of the other majority Republican leaders in place right now, that could spark some interesting, albeit nuanced, changes in both what and how things get done under the Capitol Dome in Harrisburg.

First let’s talk style.

Turzai, more than any other Republican leader in recent years, had made himself sort of the anti-Gov. Wolf; the highest-profile resistor in the GOP leadership ranks to tax increases, hikes in the state’s minimum wage, or most kinds of major state spending increases.

That was great, in the eyes of his supporters.

Charles Mitchell, president of the conservative-leaning Commonwealth Foundation, lauded Turzai Thursday for driving through a list of accomplishments that included tax credits-for private school tuition scholarships, public pension reform, reform of the state’s liquor system, the defeat billions of dollars of tax increases and the protection of affordable energy for all Pennsylvanians.

It also made him the chief flak-catcher for the Republicans in Harrisburg.

Supporters say that was true leadership in action.

“The Democrats politically have used him as a scapegoat for a lot of things not happening,” said Rep. Seth Grove, a Republican from Dover, York County. “So he has taken arrow after arrow after arrow… when it is really the caucus that’s generally opposed to those issues.”

Proof that Turzai could read and serve his caucus, Grove and other supporters said, was his 2015 decision to run a bill establishing a medical marijuana program in Pennsylvania despite his own intense, personal opposition.

But there were also several times in high-stakes negotiations in recent years, typically involving the state budget, when it could feel like there was everybody else in legislative leadership, and then there was Turzai.

Never was that more apparent then in 2015 and 2017. In both years, House and Senate negotiators crafted potential budget deals, with tax increases, with Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf. Then when respective Republican and Democratic leaders went back to sell those deals to their members, it was Turzai who was crediting with leading revolts in the House Republican chamber to stop them.

The good part about that, Turzai’s supporters say, is unnecessary tax increases were avoided.

But several sources who asked not to be identified Thursday in order to speak about closed-door budget negotiations said they believe Turzai’s actions stunted trust between the leaders, and literally led to a move away from so-called “big table” negotiations to, in recent years, a system of smaller talks and shuttle diplomacy.

That was in part due to certain leaders’ reluctance, some of the sources speaking to PennLive said, to negotiate with Turzai.

The Speaker, these Turzai-ologists said, never adapted to the divided government era that started with Democrat Gov. Tom Wolf’s election in 2014. One top Democratic staffer complained Thursday that “when you are trying to solve problems, you don’t start with five solutions not being allowed to come into the room.”

Of course, in the modified approach to budget negotiations, the issues still get talked through and eventually, everyone, has their say. But, Turzai’s critics said, there has been a loss of bipartisan, cross-chamber and cross-branch collegiality.

Conservatives certainly hope and expect that any recast House Republican leadership team will continue to push for smaller government, lower taxes and less onerous regulations on Pennsylvania businesses. But sources from both parties on Thursday expressed a hopefulness that with a new Speaker could come a new spirit of cooperation and collaboration.

As for issues, here’s a couple that might get some different treatment in a post-Turzai legislature:

1) Minimum wage.

The Senate has already passed a plan that would push the state’s minimum wage from $7.25 to $9.50 per hour by 2022. The House hasn’t acted yet.

House Republicans, whose oft-stated preference is for policy changes that improve the business climate so there are more jobs that pay well above the minimum, won’t roll over on this issue just because Turzai is leaving. But Democrats are eager to see if they can find common ground on the shared goal of helping poor, working Pennsylvanians with a fresh leadership group.

2) Energy issues.

Some suggest efforts to recalibrate energy policy for the next generation might make more headway.

Turzai is a hero for many in the current generation, says Gene Barr, president of the Pennsylvania Chamber of Business and Industry because he saw how the Marcellus Shale play was helping areas of the state that hadn’t seen sustained economic growth since the collapse of Big Steel in the 1970s, and he became dedicated to ensuring that the industry – and all the spin-offs that could come from it – had every chance to thrive.

His supporters love him for it, arguing that all Pennsylvanians are enjoying lower home heating prices and better air quality because of the gas boom.

But Turzai’s gas-first approach, other sources noted Thursday, tended to have a chilling effect in the House majority caucus on issues like how to ensure the preservation of the state’s nuclear fleet and its carbon-free emissions in the face of a national imperative to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

3) Restore Pennsylvania

Wolf has gotten nowhere so far in his pitch to finance a $4.5 billion, bond-funded infrastructure investment. Turzai, who has prided himself on taking steps to control the state’s long-term debt load, has derided Wolf’s plan as mortgaging the state’s future “to provide Governor Wolf with a slush fund to ride out his term.”

Down the road, could Wolf get some more traction on Restore PA post-Turzai, either through bond funding or proceeds from the state’s proposed participation in the northeastern states’ regional cap-and-trade program for greenhouse gas emissions from power plants?

Other issues, meanwhile, may have to find new champions:

1) School Choice.

Turzai has been the leading proponent among current legislative leaders for expanded school choice programs.

But in a post-Turzai world – at least while Wolf, a strong public education proponent, is in power – it might be all school choice proponents can do simply to retain the tax credit-for-tuition scholarships program that Turzai has pushed and pulled into an annual $240 million revenue hit in the near term future.

2) Further liquor reforms.

Turzai, more than anyone, is the person you should toast if you’re pleased about being able to buy a bottle of wine at the grocery store. But further liquor reform efforts don’t seem to have the same primacy with his leadership colleagues, and again, as long as Wolf is in office, it’s unlikely that we see a major next step in liquor privatization until the 2016 changes are fully absorbed and analyzed.

None of this is to suggest that things will be dramatically different for the average Pennsylvanian because of a new House Speaker.

“It doesn’t change the essential nature of the Republican caucus,” said Franklin & Marshall College political scientist G. Terry Madonna. “They’re conservative, many of them. They come from the state’s rural areas and small towns, and a lot of them are supporters of President Trump… I don’t see what I would call significant policy changes.”

“Turzai couldn’t have done anything he did without the support of his members, and there will be other leaders (succeeding him) who will grasp that,” agreed Steve Bloom, a former GOP House member from Cumberland County who now serves as vice president of the conservative-leaning Commonwealth Foundation, which has shared many of Turzai’s policy priorities in recent years.

In the long run, it’s quite likely that the 2020 election results have a far bigger effect on the overall direction of the ship of state than who replaces Mike Turzai as Speaker of the House.

But the Republican leader who has been most unlike the others is getting ready to step out of the picture, and – for the time being – that bears watching.

 

PennLive and The Patriot-News are partners with PA Post.