Expert: prices would go down if health care systems merged

(Harrisburg) — The wait for a decision that will reshape health care in the midstate for years has started.

Before testimony could wrap up, the defense had one more witness – a Princeton economist who came with his own set of formulas.

Remember, this case is about a proposed $2.7 billion merger of Penn State Health and PinnacleHealth.

The Federal Trade Commission and state Attorney General’s office are challenging the deal.

The price of health care, the quality of health care, and more are at stake here.

In his testimony, Princeton Professor Robert Willig argued that prices would actually decrease 15 percent if the merger went through.

He says the new larger health system would desperately want to stay in-network for health insurers, and so it would push prices down out of the fear that patients would just go to Lancaster, York, or other areas.

Professor Willig also argued that the government should be humble about its confidence in its model – saying its always hard to predict the future. 

However, another economist who works at the Federal Trade Commission says the other set of formulas are frequently wrong, pointing to a test he ran with current data.

Now, it’s up to Judge John Jones III, who has ruled in other big cases like same-sex marriage and the dispute over teaching intelligent design in the Dover Area School District.

The judge’s decision could come by mid-May.

Inside the chambers:

It’s startling to see the change in tone on the final day. As the case drew to a close, there was a lot of laughter and relaxed lawyers, unlike what I saw earlier in the week. However, there were some tense moments, including when a lawyer for Penn State Health/PinnacleHealth was cross-exaiming an expert for the prosection. After the witness explained her answer beyond just giving a yes or no, the lawyer sternly shot back that “we’re trying to get to a lot of testimony today, just answer with a yes or no please”.

Judge John Jones III was highly complimentary of the lawyers involved in the case, praising their “collegiality and spirit of working together”. He said that what he saw is how all lawyers should conduct themselves.

Judge Jones III also spoke about the case briefly, saying it’s “very, very, very important for the public and hospitals” and that this will be a “very difficult decision”.

Representatives from PinnacleHealth and Penn State Health declined to comment after the proceedings.