Many Lebanon County voters are changing party affiliation

More than 1,600 Lebanon County voters have changed their party affiliation to Republican

Lebanon County voters are changing party affiliation prior to the April 26 Primary Election at a pace not seen since the 2008 presidential election.

More than 1,600 Lebanon County voters have changed their party affiliation to Republican, according to numbers supplied by the Lebanon County Voter Registration Office.

That number, however, has largely been offset by the nearly 1,100 registered voters who have switched allegiance to the Democratic Party,

Nearly 500 more voters have opted out of the major parties to become independent or affiliated with a third party, for example the Libertarian or Green parties.

The party breakdown for the county’s 81,004 voters as of Friday is as follows:

• Republicans: 43,690
• Democrats: 25,771
• Independent/other: 11,543

The Republican numbers have also been bolstered by the registration of 382 new voters, while 1,624 voters have changed affiliation to join the GOP for a net gain of 2,006 since the start of the year.

The Democrats, on the other hand, have failed to keep pace. The party has registered 209 new voters and seen 1,074 join it ranks, for a net gain this year of 1,283, according to county voter registration numbers.

Lebanon County Director of Elections Lori Oliver does not claim to be a political analysts but feels the candidacy of controversial Republican front-runner, Donald Trump, may be at the root of the party changes.

“I can tell you when people come in a lot of them comment that they are changing because they want to vote for Trump,” she said.

Changing party affiliations is as easy to do as changing your address or any other alteration of your voting status, and can now be done via the Internet at register.votes.PA.com or at her office, noted Oliver.

“Any change, no matter what it is, is done the same way. You just fill out a new form,” she said.

The heads of the local Republican and Democratic parties also see Trump’s candidacy as one of the factors motivating voters to change their party affiliations prior to the primary. But for different rationales.

Lois Herr, chairwoman of the Lebanon County Democratic Committee, believes there are conflicting reasons why members of her party are willing to vote Republican in the Primary Election, including to aid Democratic front runner Hillary Clinton.

“It’s not an organized movement. It’s an art not a science,” she said, with a quick laugh. “There are individuals I know who are switching so they can vote for Trump because they believe Hillary can beat him easier in the general election. And there are some who are switching to vote against him because they are afraid for the country if he is elected.”

Republicans may have similar motive switching to the Democratic Party in order to vote for Bernie Sanders in an attempt to thwart Clinton, Herr said.

“Again, I think people are going in four directions but not in any organized fashion and are basically cancelling each other out,” she said.

Sabotaging the opposing party’s election is why Lebanon County Republican Chairman Casey Long said he favors the closed party system, which allows major party voters to only cast a ballot for their party’s candidate.

“I think a closed primary is definitely the best way to go to avoid any mischief that may occur,” he said.

Like Oliver, Long gives some credit for the changes in party affiliation to the state’s convenient new online registration system.

“I think with online voter registration now being available in Pennsylvania you are seeing more people switch because it is easier to do so,” he said. “Also, I think there’s tremendous enthusiasm on the Republican side, both nationally and locally. Obviously there is a heated primary for the Republican nomination and competitive primaries in both parties.”

The move toward the GOP party this year is reflective of nationwide voting trends, Long said.

“Nationally there is much more enthusiasm on the Republican side than the Democratic side. You see that in turnout throughout the country, Republicans have a huge turnout margin,” he said.

Some of the change in party affiliation could be the ebb and flow caused by Pennsylvania’s closed primary system.

Because of Republicans have a large voter registration advantage in the county, the winner of the GOP primary is often elected in November. Some Democrats may be switching to the GOP now to have a choice in selecting the eventual winners in the contested races for the 101st and 102nd state House of Representative’s legislative districts.

It’s a theory Long embraces.

“I agree with that on the local level, certainly in Lebanon County, where there is a huge registration advantage on the Republican side,” he said. “I feel very confident whoever wins both the 102 and 101 will be elected in November.”

Herr is not ready to concede any seat, noting that qualified Democrats are running in every local race. Most of them are unopposed, which has its pros and cons, she said.

“The disadvantage is you don’t get your name recognition early on. In that case, a primary is good for everybody,” Herr said. “On the other hand it takes time, energy and money to run a primary, so we can put that toward the General Election.

Changes in party affiliation can continue until the voter registration deadline of March 28, so the numbers are likely to rise until then. Whether enough voters will switch parties to match the changes in voter registration during the 2008 Primary Election is questionable, however.

That is the year Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton were in a close race that still had not been officially decided by the time Pennsylvania voted.

Between the November election in 2007 to the April Primary in the following year, the number of registered Democrats in Lebanon County soared by 3,197 to 25,292 on the rolls. While during the same period the number of registered Republicans fell by 985, from 44,058 to 43,073.

Long said he believes the Republican presidential race will be down to Trump and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, and will still be in play when Pennsylvania’s primary election rolls around next month.

Trump won a straw poll among the committee in October but the party did not endorse a candidate at its meeting last month, said Long, who supports Cruz and expects him to eventually rise to the top of GOP ticket.

“I think Donald Trump again has appeal to a lot of different people,” he said. “But Lebanon County Republicans are pretty conservative and will be more inclined to support Ted Cruz, who is someone whose conservative record, quite frankly, makes him a stronger candidate for the Republican Party in the General Election.”

This article is part of a content-sharing partnership between Lebanon Daily News and WITF.